tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2289482511228853984.post3705563327075225537..comments2023-12-16T05:27:05.041-06:00Comments on mexpatriate — in the key of steve: tail of the turkeySteve Cottonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00468378507171761868noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2289482511228853984.post-3191391020364218412009-11-29T16:14:54.116-06:002009-11-29T16:14:54.116-06:00Leah -- If done properly, people can retain both t...Leah -- If done properly, people can retain both their political and economic liberty. And I wish Mexico my best in that pursuit.<br /><br />With the exception of the American Revolution (solely a political revolution), the revolutions of the 18th, 19th, and 20th Centuries were all tragedies for their nations -- from Nazi Germany to Communist-Fascist Cuba to Communist China. Even the 19th Century revolutions of Latin America are only now evolving into the liberal democracies that their architects imagined, notwithstanding buffoons like Chavez.Steve Cottonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00468378507171761868noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2289482511228853984.post-9292021622710332172009-11-29T14:41:53.443-06:002009-11-29T14:41:53.443-06:00That could be true, and I'm not saying I suppo...That could be true, and I'm not saying I support the Zapatista ideology. My point was simply that a small angry minority will not succeed in revolution of any kind without violence against the status quo. This is clear throughout history.<br /><br />I fear that without a mass population willing to trade in social status for freedom, things will not change.One Small Vozhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04966486789164013039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2289482511228853984.post-67076640432228100192009-11-28T23:06:36.743-06:002009-11-28T23:06:36.743-06:00Calypso -- "Interesting" is the word.
F...Calypso -- "Interesting" is the word.<br /><br />Felipe -- This is going to be one fascinating year in Mexico.<br /><br />Teresa -- I am enjoying my life of Saturdays.<br /><br />Kim -- You are correct. Pemex managed to get its oil futures sold at the highs of 2008. Unfortunately, there is a double (or triple) whammy on its way. The fall in oil prices. The decline in oil production. Mexico's lack ot political will to reform the oil industry. Like you, I have been pleased with the reforms Mexico has made during the last decade. When I started studying these issues in the mid-1970s, I had no hope that Mexico would come this far this fast. However, as the last presidential election showed, danger lies just below the surface.<br /><br />Tancho -- By listening to Kim?<br /><br />Leah -- I fear that the Zapatistas and their ilk offer only a return to governmental serfdom -- the very thing that the Central Europeans were wise enough to dump.Steve Cottonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00468378507171761868noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2289482511228853984.post-85792549533638932412009-11-28T15:23:23.211-06:002009-11-28T15:23:23.211-06:00The key to changing Mexico (to me) is to get the p...The key to changing Mexico (to me) is to get the power back into the hands of the people. Monopolies, organized crime cartels, and NAFTA are all huge influencers of the political machine that steers the economy away from this. A political will can change it, but as the Zapatistas have learned, violence during confrontation may be inevitable.<br /><br />I agree with John that in general, mass populations of Mexicans (and Americans) do not anticipate problems until they are personally affected. They will not get involved politically unless they are forced to - like the Zapatistas.One Small Vozhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04966486789164013039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2289482511228853984.post-86564516876018761632009-11-28T10:14:45.056-06:002009-11-28T10:14:45.056-06:00So now that you have kicked over the rice bowl, s...So now that you have kicked over the rice bowl, so to speak, where does one get the crystal ball or crystal balls to hang on, to both investments, money and the crystal balls so they do not clank together and crack?<br />Some one should be able to make some decent change on this "change".....Tanchohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11196129338636347646noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2289482511228853984.post-90499664688754314682009-11-28T10:13:13.099-06:002009-11-28T10:13:13.099-06:00One of Mexico's bigger problems is that histor...One of Mexico's bigger problems is that historically 40% of government revenues came from Pemex. Apparently (and I haven't verified this), they were smart enough to hedge oil prices in the summer of 2008, thereby preventing a devastating blow to the budget as oil prices collapsed. Still, the Cantarell field, Mexico's biggest, is still seeing steady production declines, which will be hard to offset with higher prices. In the summer of 2008, the government debated amending the constitution to allow in the foreign majors, who have superior technology, to help stem the decline. But the PRD spun it as an affront to Mexican sovereignty, and the measure didn't pass. <br /><br />The recent budget measures and tax increase have stemmed the decline in the peso, which is now threatening to break out to the upside vs the unloved USD. If I were an expat relying on a cheap exchange rate, I'd now be thinking of moving perhaps a year's expenses into pesos and taking advantage of higher Mexican interest rates to boot. Anyway, I digress.<br /><br />The longer-term Mexican government budget will remain threatened by the longer-term decline in Mexican oil production. Some day they will have to impose more taxes, and that will be unpleasant. <br /><br />However, the political transformation leading up to the 2000 election of Vicente Fox as president was a long shot at best. And if someone in 1994 had written a paper projecting that the PRI would lose the 2000 election to another party, they would have been laughed out of the country. <br /><br />So don't underestimate the ability of Mexico to adapt when it needs to. This country has made far more progress than anyone would have guessed. And it doesn't suffer from the USA's delusion that funds are limitless, and that the bond markets can be relied upon to fill the funding gap forever. So Mexico will face the realities and deal with them. <br /><br />Meanwhile, even expats benefit from the oil patrimony delivered by Pemex. <br /><br />So enjoy the low taxes while they last. Someday too that will end.<br /><br />Saludos,<br /><br />Kim G<br />Redding, CA<br /><i>Where we are visiting Mom for Thanksgiving. And are thankful for her influence in our life.</i>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2289482511228853984.post-85109721231133764602009-11-28T09:23:04.794-06:002009-11-28T09:23:04.794-06:00interesting post indeed. wish i could be down the...interesting post indeed. wish i could be down there spedning pesos-someday ;-) <br /><br />glad you've enjoyed your days of eating turkey. our leftovers are almost gone and it is time to start cutting back if i want to be in shape for the cruise in april. it will be here before we know it.<br /><br />also, i'm very glad to hear how much your spanish is improving. you hadn't mentioned that in a while. are you still taking classes?<br /><br />have a great weekend, although as mr. zapata would say, every day is a weekend for you ;-)<br /><br />teresaAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2289482511228853984.post-61536313330315443442009-11-28T08:11:30.793-06:002009-11-28T08:11:30.793-06:00Four of the six items on that graph are good or ne...Four of the six items on that graph are good or neutral news, especially the low inflation. My glass is half full, not half empty.<br /><br />Interesting post, señor.Michael Dicksonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01720359542700663699noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2289482511228853984.post-22571315641159407572009-11-28T05:37:31.322-06:002009-11-28T05:37:31.322-06:00Sadly I find the Mexican middle-class carrying the...Sadly I find the Mexican middle-class carrying the same attitude that their U.S. counterparts had before their crash - they ignore the trends and reports; smiling and espousing that things continue to grow and everything they have will continue to get more valuable - a very dangerous outlook at present here in Mexico.<br /><br />In the city of Xico postage stamp piece of land costs $30,000US and up - there is no safe haven in this economic decline.<br /><br />However a depression tends to level the playing field and put things back in perspective.<br /><br />It is going to get interesting.Calypsohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02705486544074674388noreply@blogger.com