Wednesday, November 09, 2016

trumping the experts

If I had put money on top of the cracker barrel, betting the outcome of this election, I would have been two for three.

My predictions on the House and the Senate were perfect. But the presidential race, that is another story. The electoral votes sorted out to be what I thought would be the split, but, in reverse order for the candidates.

My excuse is that I am an amateur. The purported experts are the ones who have crow on their face, as my secretary, Jamela, was wont to say.

Starting with the smug Nate Silver. His final prediction is right there at the top of this piece. Like a lot of "neutral" commentators, he may have allowed his hucksterism for the Clinton team to cloud his objectivity.

As everyone says, though, this has been a very odd year when it comes to polls. Trump seems to confound the standard of prediction. But that was also true of the polls in the run-up to the Brexit vote.

The hubris of the "experts" has come to the door asking for payment. I know because I can hear the rap of its hand at the front gate.

This is going to be an interesting four years.

No comments: