welcoming patricia to the party

I have retired from the daily essay business.

Or, so I say.  Even though the evidence is contrary.  Yesterday, it was my struggle with Telcel.  Today is is my pending struggle with the weather.  I am turning into a veritable Nietzsche.

But this is not a run-of-the-mill weather story.  If the weather people are anywhere near correct, a category 3 hurricane may be headed to landfall along our peaceful strip of coast.

Hurricane Patricia by name.  She is currently south of us in the Pacific.  But, her intentions, if she has any, are to turn north before too long.

See that red line?  It is the hurricane watch line.  And Barra is on it.

However, each new iteration of the map has shown Patricia moving further west from us.  It appears Puerto Vallarta may take a harder hit.

Of course, that is a relative term.  Getting hit directly means wind damage and possible storm surges -- where the ocean decides to follow its evolutionary path by taking up residence on otherwise dry land.

I have witnessed the aftermath of hurricanes.  The wind and water can rain terror.

Even if, as it now seems likely, the storm does not hit us directly, we will not be home free.  There will be wave damage to our already-deteriorating beach.  And there will be flooding.

We sit on an alluvial plain between the mountains and the ocean.  Oregonians might think of Seaside.  Same set-up.  SAme problems.

When we get heavy rains, the mountains slough it off into the streams and rivers that end up here.  It is not merely a euphemism that we live on a flood plain.

As things are now, I am staying in place.  The paintings are being stored to avoid wind and water damage.  Otherwise, I have all the food and water I will need for a short siege.

And if the circumstances change?  I will undoubtedly follow the advice attributed to John Maynard Keynes -- the only advice from him that has ever made sense to me.

"When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?"