not quite staying at home

Last week the governor of Jalisco ordered a 5-day voluntary "stay-at-home" request.

I will admit that I was skeptical of how effective it would be. Mexico had not yet been hit hard by the coronavirus and the potential effects on both health and the economy had not been a regular point of discussion with my Mexican acquaintances -- especially, the younger ones.

I should have known better. When the Calderon administration shut down public gatherings in 2009 during the H1N1 pandemic, people complied. The announcement scared people into the reality that avoiding otherse was the best way to stay not-dead.

The governor's current order has had something of the same effect. Certainly, not immediately. On the weekend, the shopping street in my neighborhood was filled with people going about their daily duties.

Cars, trucks, and motorcycles were playing a deadly game of tag. Streets were being swept. Hands shaken. Cheeks kissed. In the evening, the street restaurants were a little less busy, but they were open and no one was even thinking about social distancing.

My skeptisim seemed to be well-based. But I was wrong.

Last night I decided to walk to the malecon to watch the sunset and to see if the activity level had diminished from my visit on Thursday (making steve a dull boy). It had.

This is what the area designated to tourist indulgence looked like.

I have a confession to make. I had to wait for a car to pull out of the shot before I took it, but it sums up the future of tourism in our little town.

It took this area of Mexico almost 6 years to recover from the 2009 H1N1 epidemic. No one knows just how long this event will tamp down tourism. But a study issued today estimated that 18 million jobs will be lost in the early stages of a Mexican recession.

The malecon was not devoid of people last night. But it would be an exaggeration to call the people who were there a "crowd." There may have been 50 people. Mostly Mexican tourists enjoying Barra's charm. Some northern tourists who kept darting away if anyone approached them.

At this time of year, Barra's tourist trade is still active. A large portion of northerners do not flee north until around Easter. And there are lots of Mexican-American families who have come south to spend Spring break with their extended families. When I flew down from Los Angeles a couple weeks ago, not a seat was available on the airplane. The majority appeared to be northern families heading to the Old Country.

Almost all of the restaurants on the malecon and in centro were closed last evening. A few family-run operations were open, but they had only a smattering of customers. All of the tourist souvenir shops were closed. There were simply no customers. Just a few strollers.

I stopped at the Kiosko to buy a bottle of water and ran into the largest gathering of people I had encountered on my trip. There must have been 15 people in the store. But Kiosko is always busy.

Three young women were sitting at the table in the store -- drinking their Perrier water. Out of curiosity, I stopped and asked them, in Spanish, where they were from and how they were enjoying Barra.

They just stared at me and then started giggling amongst themselves. I took it for the usual social awkwardness when any old man starts a conversation with young women.

But I pressed on and asked them what they enjoyed most about Barra.

One girl shyly asked: "Do you speak English? We don't know Spanish."

It turned out that they were all cousins. Third-generation Americans, who lived in southern California. Like the people on my flight, they were here to visit family.

All three agreed on one thing. They were happy that their great-grandparents moved from this area. They enjoyed visiting their relatives, but they found Barra to be boring, and they could not understand a lot of things about their cousins who live here.

Even with schools closed up north and many jobs being placed on hold, the Mexican-American families will soon be returning home. With the other northern tourists now long gone, there is only one regular revenue source for Barra's tourism industry. Week-end tourists from the highlands -- and, of course, the Semana Santa crowd.

This weekend will be the first test following the expiration of the 5-day order to see if the tourists show up. That may be the best barometer whether anyone will appear for Semana Santa.

If I were a betting man, all of my chips would go on black. By Easter (or before), Mexico should be in the height of its portion of the pandemic. If 2009 is a good guide, Mexicans will stay home rather than trek to the beach.

A fitting ending to the day -- in front of my least-favorite sign.