weather competition -- round one

Good evening from your vigilant weatherman up north.

We are expecting a 101-degree day tomorrow in Prineville followed by a chilly 100 Monday and a shivering 97 Monday. But that is just heat.

Looking at the cyclone map of the eastern Pacific, the ocean appears to be alive with weather activity. And it is.

Those red and yellow blobs with their accompanying arrows look like something a football coach would draw. Fortunately for you folks still enjoying the sybaritic life of the Costalegre, there is very little likelihood that you will be pummeled like a linebacker.

The only disturbance that offers any hope of excitement is that red "X" off of the northwestern coast of Panama -- rather blandly named Disturbance 3. There is a 90% chance of "cyclonic formation" in the next five days.

Despite the image of Dorothy's house being whisked away in the first act of The Wizard of Oz," cyclonic formation" can range from a tropical depression to a tropical storm to the ever-dreaded hurricane.

But, as anyone knows who has been through this annual summer weather phenomenon, what the disturbance will become is only the first question. It is a bit like following your favorite music artist. You need to know not only that the artist is on tour, but where the artist is going to be.

Or, in the case of a cyclone, where it is going?

As you can see, the current prediction for Disturbance 3 is that it will not directly affect the Costalegre. It will most likely pass by the two or three hundred miles out to sea. But, if we are lucky, it will bring some more much-needed rain by affecting closer weather patterns. Or closer to you. Because I am still looking forward to the desert heat of central Oregon.

This briefing comes to you during a break in moving Mom into her new retirement apartment in Bend. Tomorrow, she will get the key to her front door. Darrel, Christie, and I will move over her linens, some kitchenette items, and a much-reduced collection of clothing. On Sunday, two young men will show up to move her large furniture pieces to the apartment.

Yes. Yes. Yes. I know. Choosing this weekend with its heat advisory warning may not be the best choice for lugging heavy items from her house to her new apartment. But that was the die we rolled.

I will check back in with you later in the week letting you know if I have fared better moving than you have with whatever Disturbance 3 turns into.