Thursday, August 26, 2021

and there was fourteen-e


The naming of things is an art.

And the naming of tropical depressions, storms, and hurricanes are no exception.

Most of us know the rules for naming storms and hurricanes. Every year, the World Meteorological Organization draws up a list of names (one list for the Atlantic; one for the Pacific) starting with A and running through W (Q, U, X, Y, and Z are not used because of limited name options). The names then alternate boy, girl, boy, girl like some stuffy English manor house dinner party.

If more storms show up than there are name tags on the table, the alphabet starts at the top again. The use of the Greek alphabet for the additional names in 2020 proved to be too confusing, so the Greeks have been sent off to their own party. Probably, on Lesbos.

When we last talked about storms, Hurricane Grace had smashed into the east coast of Mexico, made its way across the middle of the country, and died out in the mountains. But remnants of the storm made it to the Pacific where it re-formed as a small hurricane, and passed into oblivion in the Pacific.

I cannot remember now if it was re-christened "Linda" or "Marty." They come and go so fast this time of year. In fact, they come and go just like my memory.

There is a new disturbance brewing just south of Mexico, and it formed close enough to the coast, there is a possibility that its northern journey will bring it close to us. Off shore. But close.

Because it is only a tropical depression, it has one of those names that would sound more appropriate in a Lockheed fighter test facility. This one is "Fourteen-E." Hardly a threatening or sexy name. But it is coming our way.

According to the path NOAA currently projects, we will probably feel some winds Friday afternoon or evening. But, as I keep saying, the hurricane (and a hurricane it will be when it passes us by) itself will be offshore from us. But it looks as if the tip of Baja (once again) is going to be another target.

I talked with a couple of people who are on the Alaska flight to Manzanillo on Saturday from Los Angeles. That flight has had at least two run-ins with cyclones this year.

I was scheduled on a flight to head north in mid-June when Tropical Storm Dolores blew in shifting my departure by one day. The next Saturday on my flight south, Hurricane Enrique was headed directly at the Manzanillo airport. To my surprise, the flight left Los Angeles on time and arrived just as the first rain from the hurricane started falling on the tarmac.

Because the unyet-named tropical storm/hurricane will have passed the airport by Saturday afternoon, Alaska may still fly its plane south. But pilots (and airline executives) are always a bit edgy about flying when a weather event is directly in the path of the plane's usual travel.

Of course, the flight path can be re-calculated. I am interested in what Alaska decides, not only because I am always curious about such things, but I will be flying north in another week, and we certainly are not done with our storm season.

So, it is once again time to be vigilant, ye men of the West, with an eye toward the south. The troops of Mordor may once again be on the march.

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