Thursday, January 31, 2008
una vida de perro
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
sail of the decade
tax and spend

Monday, January 28, 2008
board to tears
What I have discovered is that each group tends to have its own personality – dependent on the membership. For instance, almost every Mexican town has its message board. These boards have a very chatty, in-group feel to them. You really need to live in the community to understand the exchanges – exchanges that generally have the feel of a Methodist social (even though “naughty” topics -- such as, the best “gentlemen’s” club -- creep in now and then, to everyone’s giggling delight).
But, like all communities, there tend to be seedy bars where community members hang out because they probably have trouble fitting into other social environments. I belong to two message boards that fall into this category. They tend to attract people who believe that they know everything, but, in truth, have little experience to share with others.
Let me give an example. A woman wrote a very timid posting indicating that she was moving to Mexico with her handicapped husband, but she had certain fears for her safety. Obviously, what she needed to hear was that the city she was moving to was safer than most American cities and that with the usual cautions that people use in their lives, she would be fine. Instead, she got a series of stories about beatings, robberies, kidnappings, and physical disfigurement – all of which had either happened to the tellers or to their very close personal friends and neighbors. Most of the stories sounded as if the tellers had missed out on a couple days of medication.
I felt sorry for the story tellers. They obviously have control issues in their own lives. But I felt even worse for the woman who had asked the question. She had stumbled into the local dive thinking she was in the reference library.
Why not? Indeed.
Sunday, January 27, 2008
el gouge-o

Thursday, January 24, 2008
strike three -- bases loaded

1. Everyone knows this one. The big R. The ski jump. The precipice. Pick your cliché. A recession is on the way. That will mean that housing prices will be depressed a bit longer. My home town already has a glut of unsold houses on the market -- some in my own neighborhood. But everyone knows this story.
2. This little piece of bad news is not as well-known. Buckle your seat belts for a series of mortgage insurance and bond insurance bankruptcies. The big banks may be writing off some debt, but all of those mortgage insurance policies that brokers scared young marrieds into buying will now come due. And too many were sold. After all, in an ever-expanding economy who is going to lose a job, and, if they do, they can live off of their windfall equity in their big home that their parents could never have dreamed of owning. Those insurance bankruptcies should start hitting in the next two years -- just about the time that the recession is waning.
3. But this is the big one -- and the most disturbing. All of we boomers have risen to the top of the economic pyramid with our big houses and big cars. We are now ready to retire. The kids are gone. All is well. But those darn big houses are so -- BIG. We will want somewhere with less space to care for. Maybe a 1 bedroom or a 2 bedroom. The trend has already started, but it will be in full swing in the next 3 years. The effect will be that a lot of big, formerly-expensive homes will come on the market. And who will be there to buy them? Remember all of those new schools built for boomers -- that needed to be shut down because boomers were busy having careers rather than kids? The long-range forecast is that big houses will drop in price because there will be no market for them. Opportunities for some, reversals for others.
Adding all of that together, if I time matters well, I may be able to sell my house in about 18 months or so. That will give me time to retire within the next year and to rent somewhere in Mexico for 6 months before I make the final move.
On the other hand, I could just play it by ear and enjoy even these nippy nights.
As I write, the moon has broken through the cloud cover.
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
moon in my window

Tonight a giant moon will light this expansive patio, and visitors will see what their ancestors saw a hundred or more years ago.