Monday, October 10, 2011

harmonic tremors

 
I am no Harry Truman.


Not the cranky president.  But the cranky old coot that stayed on Mount St. Helens in 1980, declaring: “The mountain ain't gonna hurt me.” 


And when the volcano blew, Harry Truman became a legend.


But, as I say, I am no Harry Truman. 


Nature is absolutely amoral when its forces are at work.  Hobbes suffered from understatement when he declared that life in nature is “solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short.”  (A friend of mine once dated an Englishman, who she described as “solitary, poor, nasty, British, and short.  But that is a far different tale.)


And I keep that in mind as I keep an eye on the reports of hurricane Jova -- back up to a category three, with the possibility of category four status tonight.  Landfall should be around midnight tomorrow.


Out of curiosity, I took a stroll through the village today to get a feel for what my neighbors are doing.


The Mexican governments -- federal and state -- have dispatched medical teams, firemen, and police to the area.  When I stopped in the little grocery store to buy a few canned goods, the firemen were there buying large quantities of vegetables.  For themselves or the local evacuation shelter, I have no idea.

 
There is an evacuation shelter here.  In central San Patricio at a school -- that four years ago was partly under water during our last severe flood.  If I stay, I am going to see if I can volunteer to assist at that shelter.


So far, the state government has kept us very well informed of evacuation options.  We are currently in a yellow status.  I know that because the official voice from our space age towers tells me so.


Three years ago, Jalisco installed the towers along the coast primarily as tsunami warnings.  But they are now being put to good use as the storm approaches.


Where I live, I can hear the Oz-like voice from the towers in Barra de Navidad, Villa Obregon , and San Patricio.  Because of the distances, it is almost like living at the bottom of a giant barrel.


The voice first speaks in Spanish, and I get to try to guess if an evacuation order has issued -- or if evacuation centers will be available.  The voice then corrects my test to 100% by repeating the message in English.  A nice touch since a very small percentage of the people here speak English.
 
I also stopped by the church today to see how the palapa construction is progressing.  The workers have almost completed framing the roof.  That, of course, is good and bad.


Good because we were planning on being in the new building when our pastor returns the first week in November.


Bad because it now looks like a house of matches facing the winds we are expecting.


I still have another day to decide whether to head out or not.  My instincts are to stay and volunteer in the evacuation shelter.


But there is time to make that call.  I do not need to be the answer in a Trivial Pursuits competition.



44 comments:

  1. love that last picture. hope the storm decides to head out to sea instead or that at the most, you just get a lot of rain (hopefully not too much flooding) without the full force of hurricane winds.

    keeping your area in my prayers. good luck!

    teresa in nagoya

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  2. Jeez Steve, I can hear it in your 'voice', that boyish desire to ride out the storm for the excitement and the bravado.  Well, at least get off that sand spit and to a little higher ground.  A cat 3 is not something to taunt when you are on low ground.  

    A story, a friend of ours decided to ride out a big hurricane, I think it was Mitch which was a cat 5 when it hit near Akumal.  He stayed in a ground floor condo on the beach, he was 17 (that was his excuse).  He said he spent almost 3 days under the kitchen counter and he couldn't hear for over a week because of the deafening roar during those 3 days.  No food, no water and no relief.  He couldn't get out from under the counter or he would have been swept away.  He's the first one packed and gone when one approaches now.  

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  3. Stormy skies seem to create nice photographs.  Undoubtedly, the light.

    The storm path seems to have moved a bit north.  But it still endangers people.

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  4. No false heroics on this end.  Where I live, we are on a patch of high ground.  But I am listening carefully to the evacuation orders.

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  5. Gorgeous photograph!

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  6. I wish I could paint that well.  Thanks.

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  7. Well, what ever you do, Steve, be safe. I suspect you will stay in order to help out, and out of your natural curiosity.

    That is a beautiful photo of the bay. Perhaps you can post another from the same position, after.

    Be careful, too.

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  8. GO! I weathered Hurricane Betsy in 65 as a toddler but my mom's psyche was scarred as houses blew away, and people were literally blowing in the wind. I chose to evacuate for Katrina. As chance had it, my house and neighborhood was relatively unscatched, but it would have been harrowing to be alone amidst the looters in the aftermath. 

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  9. Ah, Laurie, I too was in New Orleans for Betsy, but I was not a toddler. I had just turned 21, and I remember it quite well.  Not an experience I would repeat if it were left up to me. Like being in the middle of a tornado for hours.

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  10. Seriously Steve, how much help will you be with your rudimentary Spanish? The most helpful thing you can probably do is give some of your neighbors a lift to higher ground as you yourself leave to avoid adding to the burden of the rescue workers. If you really feel the need to be helpful, leave a sizable donation in your wake. That will do more than you could possibly achieve yourself.

    If you wait for the official evacuation order, you will spend the storm in as big a traffic jam as Melaque can muster. Just ask those in Houston who tried to flee Wilma in 2005, only to run out of gas while idling on stopped freeways. Further, you've got more experience with Mexican bureauracy than me.  You really think they are going to issue an evacuation order in time, and ensure a smooth, orderly evacuation? With all due respect to Mexico, I wouldn't be holding my breath on that one.  Check out the official response to the 1985 earthquake in DF. There pretty much wasn't one, and people had to fend for themselves.

    Meanwhile, your readers are worried, your mother is worried.  Sheesh! What's it gonna take?

    Mexico is full of interesting places and cheap hotels. 

    ¡¡¡¡Que te vayas!!!!

    Kim G
    Boston, MA
    Where we really are starting to wonder what the heck is holding you back.

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  11. P.S. Melaque doesn't have to take a direct hit in order for this hurricane to be BIG problem. Especially as you are right on the water.

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  12. I'm with these guys too, Steve, I think you should go too.  
    We are finally getting rain, looks like the outer bands of Jova up here.
    Whatever you decide, I hope you are safe.
    M

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  13. So long, Steve...

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  14. I hope you're not reading this, or if you are you are somewhere a bit inland.  Why not take a little vacation in Colima?  


    Our experience with Hurricane Rick, at Cat 1 would send me running if a Cat 3 was coming at me.  Take care.  

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  15. I am still in place, but I will see what tomorrow brings.  As fate would have it, the cistern with city water went dry.

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  16. You are probably getting the storm we had last night.  It appears Jova is driving quite a bit of weather in front of it.

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  17. Fortunately, I am no longer on the beach.  But, you are correct, the biggest problem here will be the amount of water the wind stirs up and the rain that falls.

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  18. The Jalisco warning system has worked rather well.  I have been amazed at the amount of emergency people who are in place already.  There is even a fleet of CFE trucks ready to get power restored.

    Having said that, this is serious business.  And I am watching it closely.

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  19. I can see how this poll is trending.

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  20. My sole experience with major wind storms, as my mother notes above, is the Columbus Day storm in Oregon in the early 60s.  It was the equivalent of a category 3 hurricane.  And it was quite an event.  So, I am watching this one closely.  So far, it has moved only slightly further north on the projections.

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  21. Whatever I decide, I will be certain not to take unreasonable risks.

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  22. Time to hit the road.  Get somewhere inland for a hang out and a good time while the storm passes.  Jerry

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  23. Forgo to send you the latest Reuters update.  Jerry  http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/10/us-storm-jova-idUSTRE79964O20111010 the latest R

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  24. Right now, time to hit the hay. I will store loose outside furniture in the morning and assess the situation.

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  25. Remember Big Pussy on the Sopranos?  He is forever "swimming with the fishes."  You are about to create a new moniker for the unfortunate "dining with the crocodiles."  We will be proud of you.

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  26. stay safe, Steve.  Thinking about my buddies in Villa Obregon tonight.  This one looks like it's building up to be a doozie.

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  27.   I'm thinking about my Villa Obregon pals tonight.  This storm looks like it is building up to be a doozie...stay safe amigo.

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  28. It could be quite a whopper.

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  29. The only sleeping I am going to be doing right now is with the fan -- while we still have power.

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  30. The story is consistent with the warnings we have been receiving from the weather services.

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  31. The latest Reuters update says Jova is heading to you.  I am saying again that it is time to hit the road.  Maybe consider your new "quite" neighbors next door and give them a chance to ride along with you.  You will all have a good time while the storm passes.

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  32. OK, Steve, with all due respect (as we used to say to the judges), follow my advice as I followed yours -- I retired sooner rather than later.  Now, leave the coast sooner than later!

    It may mean nothing -- it may mean something but I had not read your blog since last spring.  For some reason, last night I pulled it up on my computer, having heard NOTHING about the storm.  I do not believe in coincidences --get going, my friend.

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  33. There is a lot to be said for intuition.

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  34. Ride it out or flee based on what your Mexican neighbors decide...if they've lived there all their lives and aren't leaving, hang in and report back. Good luck. Kathe

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  35. Steve, you are lucky to know Kim G. 

    Rick

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  36. Risk is something we pay to avoid, a tank of gas and a few nights in a strange bed is cheap risk management. Footloose is what you are at this point in your life-get footen.

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  37. The current projection has the hurricane making landfall to our northwest.

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  38. All of my neighbors are staying -- including the tenants upstairs from Guanajuato.

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  39. Man up and stay. It's just water.

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  40. I am staying. But I have this little thing about having my head under water. Wind I can deal with -- to a point. But water? The shower can defeat me.

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