storm sa brewin'

I am back in Barra after spending two days in Ajijic.

I will share my Ajijic impressions and some travel tales involving tolls and police activity. But that can wait until Sunday and Monday. I think.

But there is a story percolating now that I wanted to talk about. I watched our hurricane that passed over Barra earlier this month from the tranquility of the Oregon high desert. There is a possibility that I may be treated to a reprise. Here in Barra this time

For the last two days I have watched a weather pattern developing south of Acapulco. Actually, there were two. One came to nothing, as most of them do. But the other has daily increased its possibilities of turning into either a depression or a tropical storm. About an hour ago, it received its temporary christening -- Sixteen.

What is a bit surprising is how quickly it is developing. There is a 90% chance of the pattern turning into a depression or storm within 48 hours. The map explains why our morning is heavily overcast. We are already seeing part of the weather system.

Here are two interesting pieces of data:

1. The system is moving west-northwestward. If the westward component prevails, the disturbance should move out to sea before it reaches us. But, if the northwestward component prevails, it could run right over the top of us -- just like hurricane Lorena did. But, this time, as a tropical stprm. The current path says we will experience some of it. Whatever it is going to be.

2. The National Hurricane Center feels the disturbance is worth warnings. "Interests along that portion of the coast [southwestern Mexico -- that includes us] should monitor the progress of this disturbance since tropical storm watches or warnings could be required later today or Sunday." We are part of that blue potential warning line on the map.

As always, there is no need for panic over storms this minor. They simply take a bit of planning and watching. With all of that summer-warm water out there, there is plenty to feed the system as it develops.

Even if it does not turn into a depression or storm, The Hurricane Center is warning of heavy rainfall with possible flash flooding and mudslides for the next few days. Starting tonight or Sunday around Acapulco. We should see activity Sunday evening.

It is that time of year.