storming grace

It is always unwise to turn your back on an adversary.

Sure, matadors do it. But they are proving their skill and mastery of controlling the uncontrollable.

But we are not talking about the Hemingwayesque glories of bullfighting today. We are talking about the weather.

You probably already know that one of the first things I do on summer mornings is to open NOAA's National Hurricane Center page to discover if any weather freight trains are headed our way. Because this was a summer morning, that is exactly what I did.

What I saw is what you now see at the top of this essay. The only activity appeared to be Tropical Storm Linda that was birthed in the Pacific south of Pacific and caused a bit of undeserved hysteria that it was coming our way.

It never was, and it never did. But, if you live on Maui, it will undoubtedly be visiting you in the form of a tropical depression Monday morning.

Otherwise the Pacific map for Mexico was optimistically clear of all activity. Except for that pesky yellow "X" over Yucatan. What was up with that?

I usually do not pay much attention to weather patterns in the Caribbean. Now and then, a storm will blow in across eastern Mexico and then die when it crashes into the mountains of the highlands. I have a friend in San Miguel de Allende who looks forward to those rain referrals.

Well, we are about to find out how that theory works. A yellow "X" usually denotes a storm that is forming over the ocean.

Not this time. That "X" is already part of the cyclonic family. And we know its name. Grace. It is the tropical storm that crashed into Haiti while rescue operations were underway following the earthquake.

Grace has now come to Mexico, still as a tropical storm. After crossing Yucatan, it is on its way to the rest of the mainland. Here is its predicted course.

Early Friday morning, its winds will build enough for it to be a hurricane just before it makes landfall about 1 AM on Saturday. Because it is no longer over water at that point, it will return to its status as a tropical storm as it continues its flight plan across Mexico.

And what about the Costalegre villages? NOAA's model shows the arc of the storm heading south of us -- if it stays on its path. Over land, these patterns quickly become disorganized. So, like any weather system this large, the Costalegre could possibly experience some weather effects. Rain being the most likely outcome.

Some weather sites are forecasting up to 3 inches of rain Saturday night. That is not a large amount of rain for the summer.

On Monday and Tuesday Martin and Victor (you met them in keeping the house afloat) returned to my upper terrace to repair three leaks that appeared during our last large rain.

They re-sealed the grout in several places. All I needed to do now was wait for our next large downpour. We have had some rain recently, but not enough to see if the leaks are fixed.

Grace may offer that opportunity.

Looking forward to rain here is always a mixed intellectual exercise. We always need rain in the summer. And the more (within reason) the better.

That modifier is in that phrase because of the experience we all had with Tropical Storm Hernan last year. Even though the storm was hundreds of miles offshore, it pulled weather over us that resulted in one of the largest floods people here can recall. A lot of people are now a bit storm-shy when the smallest weather systems head our way.

I have no idea if Grace's progeny will drop enough rain to test my repairs. Three inches may not do the job. However  that amount of rain will challenge our impaired drainage system in this area.

For me, it is a reminder that I may want to open up the "Atlantic" tab on my morning map review. At least, now and then. 

Otherwise, I may be as unprepared as the British defense of Singapore in World War II.

Never turn your back on your adversary.