the end is not near

Scary things do not always come our way.

No matter how close they look.

Yesterday I was talking with a Mexican friend. He currently has two jobs -- as a waiter and as a construction worker. He told me that tourists at the hotel and his fellow construction workers had told him that two hurricanes were headed right at us. He wanted to know if that was true. He was a bit nervous about the rain and high winds we have experienced over the past week.

I can understand the concern. People here are starting to get worn down psychologically by the very real threat of The Virus amongst us. And with last year's storm-related flooding fresh in mind, it is understandable that people are a little more apprehensive than usual about the weather.

I start each day during hurricane season looking at the National Hurricane Center's web page. With maps and supporting data, it informs of weather patterns that could result in cyclonic activity, and then predicts the paths of tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes. As computer models for weather have matured, the results are impressively accurate.

Unlike Atlantic hurricanes that primarily form off of the coast of Africa, our tropical cyclones are home-grown. They form in the Pacific off of the coast of Central America or just south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Fortunately for Mexico, due to prevailing weather patterns, if the the formation results in cyclonic activity, it will usually head west or northwest across the Pacific.

But, not always. If the weather patterns are just so, the freight train can head north along the Mexican coast leaving this area exposed to its worst. Even if it passes us, poor Baja is often its next destination.

Currently, there are two patterns of interest off the coast of Mexico. But neither of them is heading our way.

Tropical Storm Kevin has been lumbering its way across the Pacific for the past week. It looks rather menacing, if you were not aware that its path has taken its away from any threat to Mexico -- where it will die by next Sunday.

The second has been brewing away as a disturbance for the past week, and turned into Tropical Depression Twelve-E overnight. Past experience would usually justify some cautious watching because of its birth relatively close to the Mexican coast. It is destined to intensify into a tropical storm later today and into a hurricane on Thursday afternoon.

But there is no worry about this one. Both metamorphoses will occur well out in the Pacific -- far away from the Mexican coastline.

The best antidote for fear is information.

NOAA predicticted this year's hurricane activity would be slightly above average. That is apparent with how quickly we are blowing through storm names. We have barely entered August, and we are already looking for an "L" name for the newly-formed depression.

At least, for now, we can relax that this area is not in the sights of a hurricane.

That does not change the fact that this is a year to stay vigilant of the weather. And to rely on information, rather than rumors and emotions. 

Most of all -- to stay calm and enjoy the life Mexico affords us.