Friday, February 20, 2009

if fraser flows south, niles flows north


I had lunch today with one of my best friends. Among many other things, he holds a PhD in philosophy.


The two of us are about as far apart in our political and religious beliefs that any two Americans could be. But we enjoy each other's company because we never fail to learn something from each other.


One of our favorite waiters once referred to us as Niles and Fraser. We have always enjoyed the comparison because we too often fall into that cadence of discussion that can only be found amongst academics and situation comedy characters -- often the two are indistinguishable.


Today was no different. We were blathering along on the nation's economy as if we had an audience of hundreds. It was at that moment that something struck me. We were the only people in the place. During the lunch hour. Row on row of white-linened tables set with crystal and silver sat empty.


It was perhaps the first evidence I have seen in town that Salem is facing dire economic times. If the gentry choose not to dine in public, something is greatly amiss.


And if Salem is facing empty tables, I wonder how the restaurants in Melaque are faring? Or the restaurants in the rest of Mexico. Oil, tourists, and remittances keep the Mexican economy afloat.


We know that remittances are severely down (empty buckets). And when the great oil contracts fixed at last year's unnatural high expire this year, hard cash for oil will start declining.


That leaves tourists. And it appears, instead, tourists are leaving -- or not showing up.


I am curious what each of your areas appear to be experiencing this year. Anecdotally, are there fewer tourists in your area? Do the local eating establishments appear to reflect a downturn?


For my part, I am prepared to head south in a mere two months -- and to do my part to boost the economy. This time as a retiree.